The Big/Only Idea
Well, that went poorly! I was expecting to put out something more measured and thoughtful later this week, but events didn’t just overtake me, they ran me right down and stomped on me.
I called my Dec. 16 edition “Fort Sumter,” because that’s when Second Confederate President Donald Trump’s last “stop the steal” rally happened, and the rhetoric there basically was a declaration of war on our Republic. Today marked the first major battle, the Assault on the U.S. Capitol, and like Bull Run, Federal forces lost it, embarrassingly so.
Also like Bull Run, it won’t matter in the end. Congress still is going to certify the election tonight, and toady Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley will have less support for their cynical antics than they did this morning. The 25th Amendment now is being discussed openly, and in every way Trump comes out of this weaker than he went in. It hasn’t changed anything for President-Elect Joe Biden’s transition on the 20th—other than that Biden will be facing a proto-insurgency as soon as he takes office.
As I type this, reporting from around DC indicates the mob mostly has dispersed, though pockets are still out in defiance of the city’s curfew. I’ll be very interested to see whether this mob will go back home tomorrow, or settle in for a long attempt to “occupy” DC. I’d expect the former; they didn’t pack for the long haul. But they’ve got plenty of time to change that before the 20th if they want to come back and try this again.
This all was planned. I don’t mean there’s some centralized command and control node somewhere—certainly not in this White House! But discussions of violence have been coming out of lots of moms’ basements and going all over right-wing media since Trump first called for this rally and told people to “be wild!” Live pipe bombs were disarmed at the Democratic and Republican National Committee offices as well as the Capitol grounds, and a truckload of rifles and ammunition also was found near the RNC. One guy in the Capitol rotunda was photographed carrying zip ties, which is something you only do if you think you’re taking prisoners. Who did he plan to take?
DC has gotten all the attention, but state houses in Topeka, Salt Lake City, Olympia, Atlanta, Columbus, Cheyenne, Lansing, Denver, Santa Fe, and Austin all have faced Trumpist mobs, some armed, some penetrating the buildings.
I don’t want to brag (as I brag), but I wrote this on January 28, 2020:
If his efforts to abuse his Executive powers fail, and everyone else around him is preparing for the transition to the President-Elect, Trump will turn to his last resort: Twitter and his followers. He’ll call on them to save his Presidency, either by marching on Washington or on their state capitals. He won’t need to tell them to bring guns; that’s just how they roll. He could even reach out via Twitter to the military over the heads of its leaders, and we don’t really know what the troops would do—is a tweet from the President an order?
We’ve had dangerous moments at places like Charlottesville, Portland, the Malheur Wildlife Refuge, and Richmond—where large groups of armed individuals assemble for ostensible “protest.” What happens when we have 12, or 25, or 50 such events happening all at once? What happens if violence breaks out at one, and the others hear about it? What happens when troops on a base are arguing over what the right order is? Trump’s recent decision to pardon the behavior of certain troops accused of battlefield misconduct sent a signal: follow me, and I’ll protect you from the system’s sanctions.
Damn, I am depressingly good at this.
There is a lot to unpack in the complete failure of security forces to adequately protect the Capitol building. I’ve heard allegations of betrayal by the Capitol Police, and seen the videos that supposedly support that. I wouldn’t go that far. What I see is a) a complete failure of imagination by Capitol Police leadership, and b) a deliberate breakdown in the Federal systems that are supposed to secure the city from something like this.
What do I mean? The Capitol Police are trained to deal with terrorist attacks like active shooters or bombs. They’re very, very accustomed to dealing with large and unruly protests, including with civil disobedience. What happened today was more like a zombie apocalypse. They didn’t anticipate a full-out riot, or naively thought a lower-threat posture would help defuse tensions. This was a grievous blunder that should lead to the wholesale firing of their leadership, but I don’t think it reflects a conspiracy. I’ll keep an eye out for evidence that might prove me wrong.
More importantly, major multi-jurisdictional security situations in DC are coordinated by the Justice Department, and the Feds took a nap. Capitol and DC local police were never meant to face a situation like this on their own. In the summer, when the White House wanted to crush the BLM uprisings, the Feds came out in force, with all the three-letter agencies at their disposal. What we saw today is what happens when those guys sit on their hands.
Because DC isn’t a state, the National Guard reports to the President through the Defense Department, not to the elected Mayor. The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman reports that Trump dithered on sending in the Guard until Vice President Pence intervened directly with the Pentagon from wherever he was sheltering around the Capitol. Trump orchestrated a violent insurrection, and then sabotaged the response.
What do we do now? As individuals, I said last night not to confront these mobs, because they’re not actually relevant to what’s happening. But if they start settling in for the long haul, without efforts by law enforcement to remove them, then it’s time to respond. The best response I can advise is “civil siege,” but I’ll save that for a later edition if it becomes relevant.
If you’re a federal employee—I’m very sorry. This is the moment you need to straight-up confront any Republican political leadership you might have to say you will not allow your work to interfere in the transition of power, and you will be watching them to make sure they don’t either. There may be professional consequences for that—for the next two weeks, at least—but it’s the best you can do to prevent your organization from being misused in some way.
It’s time for Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi to come in hard, which appears counter to their instincts. Pelosi should remind everyone that Trump can’t stay beyond the 20th, and anything delaying Biden’s assumption of office makes Pelosi indefinite Acting President. Biden should say he’ll form a Sedition Task Force to investigate and prosecute these crimes unless Trump concedes immediately.
I’ve said for a long time that we should be prepared to let Trump go in peace if he leaves office quietly. Maybe that offer should have been put to him—maybe it was, and was rejected, though I doubt it. Either way, my offer is rescinded. It’s too late; the damage is done, and it’s incalculable. There’s a lot to be said for “moving on” in post-conflict reconciliation processes, but Trump’s leaving office won’t be the end of this civil war, not by a long stretch. We can discuss reconciliation when Trumpism is ready to surrender. Right now, if we do not take strong action against everyone involved in this seditious conspiracy, we will be inviting more of it, each act more violent than the previous.
25th Amendment? Impeachment? Indictment? Yes! Trump should face all of these. Every GOP legislator who voted against certifying the Electoral College vote should be expelled from Congress, particularly Cruz and Hawley. Anyone identified as having entered the Capitol illegally should be arrested and tried—I’ve been pleased to see several U.S. attorneys around the country warn that they will prosecute rioters for crimes committed in DC when they return home.
Since we’ve now won the Senate, we can start the legislative agenda off right, with the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and DC statehood. There are a lot of First Things for the Biden Administration, from COVID to climate to (now) counterinsurgency, but none will get where they need to go without a strong pro-Democracy agenda.
Hopefully I won’t need to send our more mini-editions, and I can have you a proper MSU later this week. Stay safe!