The "The Lamps Are Going Out" Edition

The prospect of mass violence has escalated immeasurably this month. Don’t give up hope

On August 4, 1914, as Britain’s ultimatum to Germany to respect Belgian neutrality met no reply and Britain entered World War One, Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey famously said, “the lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetimes.” I was saving that for a piece in the event Trump won, but events are getting ahead of me—not because I’m certain Trump will win, but because the risk of mass violence is going beyond even what I’ve been fearing. Once it starts, it won’t stop quickly or easily.

I’m on my fourth draft of this post here. The first was just going to be about the fiasco of the presidential debate; the second about the Supreme Court’s lawlessness, the third about statements of the head of the Heritage Foundation—and now we’ve had an attempted assassination of Donald Trump. This is a pretty fast spiral of badness, and I really feel I have to say something before the Republican National Convention doubtless gives me plenty more to say. So let me try to tackle these in what I think is their order of most to least dangerous issues.

Assassination

I shouldn’t have to say that political violence against anyone is disastrous for a free society, and I’m glad Trump is safe. He’s certain to get a degree of sympathy for this, and the Pulitzer-quality photos of him defiantly raising his fist—which I will not circulate—definitely will inspire his followers.

That doesn’t mean he’ll win. Teddy Roosevelt, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter all survived assassination attempts in their election campaigns, and it did not help them—that’s despite TR continuing his speech with a bullet in his chest!

But it’s also obvious that this raises the likelihood of mass violence considerably. Already, Maga influencers are claiming Democrats instigated this or created the atmosphere to encourage it. Trump’s supporters absolutely will take this as license to act violently against their enemies.

If Trump wins, this violence will be guaranteed. We’ve already got a man who’s tried to kill his opponents, has said he’ll do it again, has published his plans for martial law, and promises to pardon the people who committed violence for him the first time. Let’s face it, Trump and his followers aren’t the type to accept “lone gunmen,” even as their rhetoric and their gun policies help create more and more of them. And now they’ve got a real attack to justify their actions.

This is terrifyingly parallel to the 1933 Reichstag Fire or the assassination of Franz Ferdinand in 1914. In all three cases, it doesn’t really matter what happened—what matters is the act gave people with power and bad intent all the justification they needed to do their worse. To meet my Star Wars reference quota, it also looks a lot like this:

There also will be people on the Left who will seek to spin conspiracy theories of their own about false flags, and it’s important not to fall for that, nor for the idea that just because Magas and Trump in particular call for violence regularly, this is somehow karmic. Look, it’s funny to imagine someone shooting a blank and Trump dropping and cutting his own ear—the man’s big into pro wrestling, after all—but real people died. There’s a real dead shooter who’s going to turn out to be a real kid with real issues. Maybe the actual president with the connivance of the Secret Service could find a random dead body or clueless loser to set up as a shooter, but think of the number of cops and local officials—medical examiners, lawyers, the rest—you’d have to co-opt. A person without the power of the Presidency? No.

How Rapists Talk

This comes on top of the most recent language we’ve heard from Magas about Project 2025. It’s not all bad news here either—it’s starting to get serious public attention, and it’s really unpopular, so much so that Trump now is trying to distance itself from it. This makes it all the more important to hear how Kevin Roberts, CEO of the Heritage Foundation think tank that leads the Project 2025 effort, has been talking about it.

First, he’s been telling people that Trump is disavowing P2025 tactically. He’s also noting how many of the Project’s writers were officials in Trump’s administration—hint, it’s most of them! What’s most important, though, is what he said on Steve Bannon’s podcast: that “we are in the process of a Second American Revolution, which will be bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

This is how rapists and abusers talk—“this doesn’t have to hurt if you just lie back,” “I won’t have to hit you if dinner is good.” It’s the kind of deflection of responsibility for violence you hear from someone who’s already decided to be violent. I’m not saying, of course, that Kevin Roberts is a rapist or an abuser. You certainly won’t hear me say Kevin Roberts is a rapist or an abuser! I’m just saying, Kevin Roberts talks like a rapist and abuser.

But his line on the podcast that should be even more disturbing was his view that the Supreme Court’s decision granting presidents immunity for “official acts” was “vital” to make sure a president won’t have to “…second guess, triple guess every decision they’re making in their official capacity.”

When you think about things presidents have done without worrying about their personal criminal liability—Washington crushing the Whiskey Rebellion, Jackson ordering Cherokee removal, Lincoln suspending habeas corpus, FDR interning Japanese-Americans—you really have to wonder what a president would want to do that would make them think they’d crossed an unacceptable legal line! You wouldn’t hire anyone for any job if they told you, “To do this job for you, I need you to promise not to fire me or call the cops on me, no matter what I do.”  It’s an announcement they’re going to destroy the rule of law if they win. This brings me seamlessly to our next violence risk!

Konstitutional Kancel Kulture

So it turns out conservatives are cool with “cancel culture” if it’s our own constitution we’re canceling. Even more than their ruling for Trump on the 14^th Amendment’s Insurrection Clause, the Court’s decision that presidents have broad immunity flies in the face of everything we know about the Framers and the political context in which they grew up. For the Framers, the English Civil War was closer in time than our own Civil War, which shapes much of our history, is to us today. That English Civil War, of course, was fought over the question of a king’s power vice those of parliament and people, and ended with the beheading of King Charles I. That’s a pretty definitive statement on contemporary attitudes towards executive power!

This decision reflects nothing less than staggering contempt for all of us, that we must be too stupid not to know how much they’re lying. I’d respect them more if they’d just write “because we feel like it” in their rulings—at least they’d be being honest with us.

And this all really makes you feel sorry for Dick Nixon, doesn’t it? 50 years too soon!

Of course, this just makes for a tenth American politician immune from consequences, since the president now is added to the nine justices who already have no accountability for their actions. I’ve referred to the Roberts Court as our Supreme Judicial Council because they now truly act in imitation of Iran’s Guardian Council, which oversees a system that is pretty democratic—as long as they choose all the candidates and keep veto authority over whatever laws the elected parliament passes. Our justices are determined to have the ayatollahs’ power.

But the joke’s on them. They’re dumb enough to think that bringing Trump back into the Presidency will enhance their power. That makes the conservative justices possibly the six dumbest people in our government—and that’s saying a lot when you consider Lauren Boebert! It’s perfectly obvious to a moron that Trump will turn on his ayatollahs the first time they try to check him. Then they’ll find themselves realizing that they have no power but that which the other branches—and we, the people—give them.

Ridin’ With Biden?

Yeah, let’s be honest, there’s no un-seeing that debate performance. I count myself someone who had a lot of trust and confidence in the man, and watching that really shook me up. But it’s honestly the thing least worrying me right now, because the point is, I’m going to vote for the anti-fascist candidate, whether it’s Biden or someone else, and so who it is and what condition they’re in doesn’t really matter.

Do I think Biden can carry on and win this election? Sure, he’s still got a shot. Trump’s no inevitability. Do I believe Biden is performing adequately as president? No, I think he’s been fucking great! He’s exceeded all my—and admit it, your—expectations. The economy is great, crime is down, we’re still supporting democracy abroad, and he’s still in the fight at home.

Do I think he’s got what it takes to go on as President for four more years? No. To paraphrase Hemingway, people age slowly, then quickly, and if he’s already having nights like the debate, he’s going to have more. But Biden in a coma is better than whatever the fuck condition Trump is in. He’s also got a capable and pro-democracy cabinet, staff, and vice president if it comes to that. All of that’s an improvement over anything Trump and fucking J.D. Vance can offer. And by the way, Vance is the most Maga guy Trump could have picked. It’s a real sign of their confidence that they’ve got this election sewn up that Trump didn’t think he needed someone who could come off more moderate—or Trump believes Steve Bannon’s bullshit that mainstream conservatives would assassinate Trump if they thought he’d be succeeded by someone like Marco Rubio. 

But Biden also probably should go. Biden and Trump are still in competition within the margin of error, but Joe’s consistently behind within that margin, and that’s a bad sign. It’s a worse sign that a lot of down-ballot Democrats in the battleground states are polling comfortably, telling us the problem is Biden, not the Dem brand. The logical approach would be to up his campaigning tempo aggressively, but in two weeks he either hasn’t, or he can’t. Neither is a good sign. Oh, and screw those saying the attempt against Trump means Dems should dial back. A messed-up Maga kid with a gun Dems want to outlaw is no reason Dems should hold back on their messaging and their accurate critique of the threat Trump poses to our country.

In the middle of all this is Kamala Harris. At this point, supporting Biden has to be built around the expectation that she will have a significant role in a second term, and a greater likelihood than not that she assumes the presidency herself. So why wait?

She’s a relatively fresh face for people who want change—which is most Americans! She represents critical constituencies on which the campaign depends. She’s got the most White House experience of any viable alternative to Biden. She’s polling equal to or better than Biden. So let’s get on with it!

If we’re moving on from Biden—and I think that’s best, though I’ll stand with him if it comes to it—he should just resign now and swear Harris in. Don’t leave her like Adlai Stevenson and Hubert Humphrey, trying to run for office as someone new while still tied as VP to the policies of the unpopular incumbent. Certainly don’t pursue some crazy Sorkin-esque “Blitz Primary” of a bunch of potential candidates that would just leave the Dems looking disorganized. We already picked a backup to Biden—let’s trust her.

Let Joe be the man who drove Trump from office and then gave America its First Woman President. Let her run with what advantages the incumbency provides. Let her make what policy changes will best aid her campaign. Let millions of undecided voters—millions of undecided women—vote against the First Woman President, who’s not a hypothetical, but a flesh-and-blood person actually doing the job right there in front of us. Even if she loses, let us be able to say we had a woman president.

We don’t have to do this tonight. We’ve got until the Democratic convention, which is some breathing room. I’ll circle back to you after the Maga convention. We’re still in this fight, so don’t wander off.